During the last quarter of 2024, the economy of the United States grew at an annualized pace of 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This expansion rate was below the expected 2.6% and signaled a slowdown compared to the 3.1% increase noted in the previous quarter.
Primary Factors of Economic Expansion
Growth in the last quarter was mainly propelled by rises in consumer expenditures and government spending. Household consumption, a crucial part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stayed strong, indicating ongoing consumer activity. Government expenses also played a positive role, with significant growth in federal and state spending.
Quarterly Comparison Analysis
The 2.3% growth in the fourth quarter marks the slowest quarterly increase since 2018, a time when the economy expanded by 0.6% in that same period. Annually, the economy grew by 2.8% in 2024, just under the 2.9% expansion noted in 2023.
Elements Leading to the Deceleration
Varios factores influyeron en la desaceleración del crecimiento en el último trimestre:
- Reducción de Inversiones: Hubo una caída en las actividades de inversión, lo que compensó en parte las ganancias del gasto de los consumidores y del gobierno.
- Dinámicas Comerciales: Las importaciones disminuyeron en este período, lo cual, aunque resta en el cálculo del PIB, sugiere cambios potenciales en la demanda interna y ajustes en la cadena de suministro global.
Inflation Pressures and Policy Consequences
Inflationary Pressures and Policy Implications
Persistent inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 2.9% in December 2024. This uptick in inflation has led economists to adjust their forecasts, anticipating continued price pressures in the coming year. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing efforts to control inflation without stifling economic growth.
Labor Market Overview
Prospects for 2025
Outlook for 2025
Looking ahead, the economic outlook for 2025 presents a mixed picture:
- Growth Projections: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a moderation in economic growth, with GDP expected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, down from an estimated 2.3% in 2024.
- cbo.gov
- Inflation Expectations: Economists anticipate that inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, influenced by factors such as ongoing supply chain disruptions and policy decisions.
- reuters.com
- Policy Considerations: Proposed tariffs and stricter immigration policies could exert additional inflationary pressures and impact labor market dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring and policy adjustments.
